Former Presidential Advisor James Carville (ol' Snake Head, as he is less affectionately known) once summed up Bill Clinton's Presidential re-election chances with the line "it's the economy, stupid."
I never want to miss the chance to connect the word "stupid" with "Democrats", so ...it's time to refresh everyone's memory about how elections are won or lost.
Investors Business Daily
"...By 51%-41%, respondents in October picked "someone new deserves a chance" over Obama "deserves to be re-elected." Among independents, it was 54%-36%. Back in September, the readings were 50%-44% and 53%-38%, respectively.
Americans are frustrated over the continued sluggish economy, says Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll. As Vice President Joe Biden recently admitted, after nearly three years in power, the Obama administration owns the economy.
The U.S. added 103,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. That was far better than expected, but not enough to keep pace with population growth. Excluding the impact of a short-lived Verizon (VZ) strike, the U.S. added just 58,000 jobs.
Half of Americans give Obama poor or unacceptable marks in creating jobs and economic growth vs. 24% who say he's doing well.
Among independents, it's 51%-18%. 33% of swing voters give him an "F" vs. just 2% who give an "A".
That underscores Obama's intensity problem. In addition to his deteriorating support among independents, just 77% of Democrats say Obama deserves re-election while 88% of Republicans say he doesn't.
The Occupy Wall Street movement, while directed at fat cat bankers, also reflects broad dissatisfaction among Obama's political base.
The economic outlook doesn't look any better for Obama. Private and government forecasters expect the jobless rate — 9.1% in September — to stay above 8% or even 9% through 2012. Back in 2009, Obama predicted the unemployment rate would be down to 6.5% by now.
Still, while Obama may be losing by double digits to "somebody else" ultimately he will face off against a real rival. The GOP nomination race is fluid, with Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain the current top contenders.
If the election is a referendum on Obama and the economy, he faces an uphill fight. So he will try to convince voters that his eventual opponent is unacceptable.