Advocating on Behalf of the American Military and Defense on the War on Terror

Boy, doesn't it always come down to money in politics? Yes. Almost always. I'm just back from the OC after the loss last night of Chuck DeVore, who worked his heart out for the US Senate GOP nomination, with his lovely wife Diane and two daughters by his side.

As graceful a concession speech you'll never hear. I met some incredibly smart and talented individuals who will be back in the game again - people like Communications Director Josh Trevino (our brainiac) Just Hart, New Media Director (awesome skills) Matthew Waldrip (phone bank Czar) Brady Newby (direct mail genius) and Leisa Brug Klein (campaign manager.)

In the end, as I mentioned before, it always come down to money.

Here is the analysis from Chuck himself on the race results:

When all was said and done, the candidates raised the following (very close estimate based on pre-primary reports plus estimated funds raised):

 

Carly Fiorina: $4.3 million

Tom Campbell: $3.2 million

Chuck DeVore: $2.7 million

 

As a percentage, this equals:

 

Carly Fiorina: 42%

Tom Campbell: $31%

Chuck DeVore: $26%

 

Add in the $6 million that Fiorina loaned herself and the picture changes: 

 

Carly Fiorina: $10.3 million

Tom Campbell: $3.2 million

Chuck DeVore: $2.7 million

 

As a percentage, this equals:

 

Carly Fiorina: 64%

Tom Campbell: 20%

Chuck DeVore: 17%

 

Add in the IEs that went for and against Campbell or for Fiorina (calculating the ones that went after Campbell as money for Fiorina and me):

 

Carly Fiorina: $11.6 million

Tom Campbell: $3.7 million

Chuck DeVore: $3.7 million

 

As a percentage, this equals:

 

Carly Fiorina: 61%

Tom Campbell: 19%

Chuck DeVore: 19%

 

The near-final result of the race (I expect my percentage to rise slightly as the late ballots come in):

 

Carly Fiorina: 56.4%

Tom Campbell: 21.9%

Chuck DeVore: 19.0%

 

Other than Carly Fiorina under performing the money that was spent and Tom Campbell slightly over performing (due to the heavy name ID advantage he started with), one can see that in this case, money was determinative. Especially so, as the California print and electronic media wrote very little about this campaign compared to what would have been the case 20 years ago.

 

The governor's race with:

 

Meg Whitman: 64.2%

Steve Poizner: 27.0%

 

Almost precisely reflected the ratios of the money spent.

 

Lastly, it looks like the turnout across the state was uniformly dismal.  OC was reporting only 19% so far. As an example, the four-way race to replace me has the winner, Don Wagner, with 32.3% or 10,432 votes (this should increase as late absentees are counted).  In 2004, I received 46.4% in a six-way primary race for 25,248 votes.